Pointwise:
College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
NFL Key Selections....
3--New England over SAN FRANCISCO 24-13
4--DENVER over Tampa Bay 27-20
4--NY GIANTS over Seattle 33-16
5--HOUSTON(+) over Indianapolis 27-26
5--Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS 23-20
<!-- / message -->
College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
NFL Key Selections....
3--New England over SAN FRANCISCO 24-13
4--DENVER over Tampa Bay 27-20
4--NY GIANTS over Seattle 33-16
5--HOUSTON(+) over Indianapolis 27-26
5--Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS 23-20
<!-- / message -->
CKO
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in
Minny’s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana “D”, which has
suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2
games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient
this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions,
but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn’t fallen
off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games).
Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this
season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ‘08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while
new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech
(leads nation in passing), which has feasted on “cupcakes” and defensively-inept teams so far in ‘08. With
KSU’s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too
many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers
in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn’t been
sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats
ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137
yds. in his debut week ago, Prince’s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or
fewer road favorite since ‘03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But
Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to “slow down” for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD
passes in last week’s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check
status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot!
And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won’t lose its poise at
South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU—all likely 2008 bowl
teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four
turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to “man up” against
Ohio State this week, and he won’t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter
before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ‘07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching
27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last
8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for
a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more
like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
10 *PHILADELPHIA over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*PHILADELPHIA 27 - Washington 13
(Sunday, October 5)
Respect progress made by Washington HC Jim Zorn in installing his offense and adapting QB Jason Campblell to
his system. However, in the yin and yang that is the NFL, prefer taking Philly coming off a disappointing loss in
Chicago over a Redskin bunch that might find it difficult to duplicate emotional peak it achieved in impressive win
in Dallas. The Eagles did a number on Pittsburgh at Lincoln Financial Field, and RB Brian Westbrook could be back
in action after sitting out the Bear game with an ankle injury. Philly QB McNabb hit nine different receivers in
Chicago, and the Washington defense ranks 22nd against the pass and has just 6 sacks this season.
TOTALS: OVER (43½) in the Seattle-N.Y. Giants game—New York has generated 67 points in last two games, and Seattle has gone “over” in all three of
its games due to a leaky defense and a balanced attack...OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding
5.2 ypc, is “over” 3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “over” in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
MARSHALL (+3½) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)—Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd
pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...
COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas—The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...
AKRON (-3½) at Kent State—Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...
UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss—UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...J
JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh—Jaguars have had the Steelers number,
winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in
Minny’s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana “D”, which has
suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2
games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient
this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions,
but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn’t fallen
off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games).
Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this
season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ‘08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while
new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech
(leads nation in passing), which has feasted on “cupcakes” and defensively-inept teams so far in ‘08. With
KSU’s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too
many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers
in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn’t been
sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats
ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137
yds. in his debut week ago, Prince’s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or
fewer road favorite since ‘03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But
Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to “slow down” for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD
passes in last week’s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check
status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot!
And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won’t lose its poise at
South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU—all likely 2008 bowl
teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four
turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to “man up” against
Ohio State this week, and he won’t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter
before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ‘07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching
27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last
8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for
a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more
like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
10 *PHILADELPHIA over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*PHILADELPHIA 27 - Washington 13
(Sunday, October 5)
Respect progress made by Washington HC Jim Zorn in installing his offense and adapting QB Jason Campblell to
his system. However, in the yin and yang that is the NFL, prefer taking Philly coming off a disappointing loss in
Chicago over a Redskin bunch that might find it difficult to duplicate emotional peak it achieved in impressive win
in Dallas. The Eagles did a number on Pittsburgh at Lincoln Financial Field, and RB Brian Westbrook could be back
in action after sitting out the Bear game with an ankle injury. Philly QB McNabb hit nine different receivers in
Chicago, and the Washington defense ranks 22nd against the pass and has just 6 sacks this season.
TOTALS: OVER (43½) in the Seattle-N.Y. Giants game—New York has generated 67 points in last two games, and Seattle has gone “over” in all three of
its games due to a leaky defense and a balanced attack...OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding
5.2 ypc, is “over” 3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “over” in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
MARSHALL (+3½) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)—Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd
pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...
COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas—The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...
AKRON (-3½) at Kent State—Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...
UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss—UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...J
JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh—Jaguars have had the Steelers number,
winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore
THE GOLD SHEET - NCAA
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
*SOUTH FLORIDA 26 - Pittsburgh 17—Bulls a solid investment at Tampa
recently, covering 8 of their last 11 as host. And resourceful USF jr. QB Grothe
rates MAJOR edge over limited Pitt counterpart Stull (only 2 TDP TY). Veteran
Panther stoppers no pushovers, however, holding 9 of last 10 foes to fewer than 28
points. Visitor should hang inside roomy spread behind rushing of star soph RB
McCoy. TV-ESPN
(07-S. Fla. 48-PITT 37...P.20-18 S.44/193 P.34/95 P.24/38/3/298 S.17/23/0/159 S.2 P.0)
(07-Usf -10 48-37 06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17...SR: South Florida 3-2)
*Memphis 34 - UAB 24—Blazers’ versatile jr. QB Webb possesses a few
weapons, especially with speedy soph WR/return man Forrest expected back
after sitting out last week. Too bad UAB defense (466 ypg) can’t hold up its end.
Tigers’ deep cast of rangy WRs and emerging juco RB Steele (203 YR in win
over Ark. St.) will eventually overwhelm hapless host (only 4 covers last 15 at
mostly-empty Legion Field).
(07-MEMPHIS 25-Uab 9...M.25-23 M.43/265 U.30/105 M.14/28/0/298 U.25/39/2/233 M.0 U.0)
(07-MEMPHIS -11 25-9 06-UAB -5' 35-29 05-Uab +2' 37-20...SR: UAB 7-3)
*UTAH 31 - Oregon State 16—Dr. Phil is probably jumping up and down at
the dynamics associated with this “psychology play” deluxe, as OSU off
emotional mega-upset of top-ranked SC, while Utah chomping at the bit in
revenge mode after LY’s opening-game loss at Corvallis when QB B. Johnson
& RB Asiata were both KO’d. Stout Ute rush “D” well-equipped to slow betweenthe-
tackles runs by frosh RB “Quizz” Rodgers that befuddled Trojans, and
more-refined components on Utah attack capable of extending margin.
(07-ORE. ST. 24-Utah 7...O.18-12 O.44/241 U.30/18 U.17/37/0/178 O.12/30/2/129 O.0 U.0)
(07-OREGON STATE -6' 24-7...SR: Oregon State 9-4-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
*MARSHALL 20 - Cincinnati 16—Bearcats down to their 3rd-string QB (see
Special Ticker). Clever Cincy mentor Kelly, who’s covered 66% of his games
as a head coach since ‘05, still owns superior defensive depth & speed in thismatchup. Can maturing Marshall RS frosh QB Cann find enough openings in
Bearcats’ leaky pass coverage to lead Herd to its sixth straight victory at
Huntington? TV—ESPN
(07-CINCY 40-Mar. 14...C.22-19 C.39/217 M.35/80 M.21/32/1/257 C.20/27/0/219 C.0 M.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -24 40-14...SR: Cincinnati 7-3-1)
*Byu 48 - UTAH STATE 13—WAC sources insist USU not as helpless as
recent editions, especially with unheralded QB Borel adding some spark to new
option looks in Aggie attack. But high-flying BYU in no mood to cut any slack
to lower-profile state rival, and BCS-dreamin’ Cougs might want to match the
damage done by mortal enemy Utah, which won big at Logan (58-10) a few
weeks ago.
(06-BYU -27 38-0...SR: BYU 41-33-3)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Boston College 20 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—With veteran HC O’Brien
saying he’s never seen a situation similar to the extensive list of injuries
currently plaguing his Wolfpack, any investment in N.C. State a dicey
proposition. Just not that eager to lay substantial points on road with BC side
struggling to find an offensive identity with new sr. QB Crane (5 ints., just 2 TDP)
at trigger of attack.
(07-BOS. COL. 37-Ncs 17...N.21-19 B.39/231 N.24/56 N.29/54/5/351 B.15/34/1/142 B.0 N.2)
(07-BC -13' 37-17 06-NCS +6' 17-15 05-BC -4' 30-10...SR: Boston College 3-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 28 - Rutgers 20—Check status of Mountaineer star QB Pat
White (thumb injury, but expected to be available at TGS press time Sunday
night). Even if White good to go, prefer to take points with Rutgers. Substantial
edge owned by Scarlet Knights’ WRs, and emergence of thumping RS frosh RB
Brooks (5 TDs & 199 YR in last 2 games) giving strong-armed sr. QB Teel more
time to find targets.
(07-W. Va. 31-RUT. 3...R.20-15 W.47/254 R.40/183 W.10/16/0/144 R.15/31/2/131 W.0 R.2)
(07-Wva -6' 31-3 06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14...SR: West Virginia 29-4-2)
Penn State 37 - PURDUE 21—Definite defensive edges to undefeated Penn
State despite Nittany Lions’ slippage last week in yielding 24 points & 4.5 ypc
at home vs. Illinois, even with return of suspended DE Evans & DT Kuroma.
However, Purdue has far more defensive questions, as the Boilermakers rank
107th in total defense. Purdue QB Painter will move the ball, especially if PS S
Scirrotto can’t go, but Penn State has too many weapons to ask Boilers to trade
TDs for more than a half. TV—ESPN
(07-PSU 26-Pur 19...Pn.29-22 Pn.41/251 Pr.23/68 Pr.27/48/0/255 Pn.22/36/0/210 Pn.1 Pr.1)
(07-PSU -7' 26-19 06-Psu -3 12-0 05-PSU -15 33-15...SR: Penn State 8-3-1)
MINNESOTA 37 - Indiana 24—Minny got a backdoor cover at Ohio State,
scoring twice after trailing 34-6 with less than 9 minutes to play. However,
Gophers improved enough to bounce back against Indiana defense that’s
yielded 84 points & 960 yds. in last 2 games and has yet to cover TY. Will lay
reasonable number against Hoosier side making first road trip of the season (IU
0-4 SU & vs. number last 4 on the road LY).
(07-IND. 40-Minn. 20...I.22-20 I.42/228 M.29/112 M.24/44/2/280 I.24/36/1/235 I.0 M.0)
(07-IND. -13 40-20 06-MINN. -6 63-26 05-Minn. -12' 42-21...SR: Minnesota 36-26-3)
*Maryland 33 - VIRGINIA 13—Despite Terrapins’ recent surge, very
uncomfortable laying big points on road with Maryland squad that tends to play
to level of competition. Absolutely no interest in Virginia side, however, as Cavs
(just 9 ppg first 4) plumbing depths offensively while showing little spine on
defense. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. 18-MARY. 17...V.25-16 V.39/191 M.38/130 V.23/36/0/248 M.13/19/0/103 V.0 M.0)
(07-Va. +4 18-17 06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33...SR: Maryland 41-29-2)
MISSISSIPPI 20 - South Carolina 19—Sure, Houston Nutt got a signature
win at Ole Miss (1st victory over Top 5 squad since 1977!) faster than expected
with stunning 31-30 upset at Florida. But still interested in grabbing higher price
with defensively-stout USC (just 13 ppg, SEC-best 221 ypg), 7-2-1 as away
underdog under the Spurrier. ‘Cocks prized, good-scrambling RS frosh Garcia
(accounted for 217 yds. vs. UAB) & emerging corps of WRs able to burn Ole
Miss’ inviting red zone defense (15 scores in 16 chances; last in SEC). Rebels’
QB Snead has 8 TDP, 8 ints. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 8-5)
Texas Tech 31 - KANSAS STATE 30—TT program still ahead of K-State’s,
but Wildcats’ jumbo QB Josh Freeman (11 TDs, 2 ints.) giving all the signs he’s
ready to trade points with the Red Raiders. Sr. WR Deon Murphy, 5-7 juco
smurf Brandon Banks, and 6-6 TE Jeron Mastrud provide ample targets for
Freeman to duel TT QB Graham Harrell, while HC Prince’s STs always a threat.
REG TV—ABC (05-TX TECH -14' 59-20...SR: Tx Tech 6-3)
Kansas 34 - IOWA STATE 14—With KU supremely rested (played Sam
Houston State followed by bye week) for its Big XII opener, will side with
accurate QB Reesing (70.4%, 11 TDs, only 2 ints.) and veteran Jayhawk
defense over promising but still developing ISU QB Austen (65%, 4 TDs, 2 ints.).
Must be midful, however, of ISU’s 4-1 mark last 5 as home dog.
(07-KANSAS 45-Iowa St. 7...K.31-16 K.37/212 I.26/52 K.30/35/0/354 I.24/43/1/182 K.0 I.0)
(07-KANSAS -26 45-7 06-Kansas -1 41-10 05-KANSAS +3 24-21 (OT)...SR: Kansas 47-34-6)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Duke 23—Go-with vs. go-with? Tech certainly
qualifies now that pointspread dynamo Paul Johnson (3-0 against line TY; 40-
23-1 his last 5+ seasons at Navy) has taken helm in Atlanta. But insiders insist
downtrodden Duke’s early-season uptick no fluke, and can-do new HC
Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils brimming with confidence after snapping 25-game ACC
losing streak last week. Poised QB Lewis (28 TDP last 1+ seasons) will keep
visitor close. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Ga. Tech 41-DUKE 24...G.21-9 G.52/259 D.28/24 G.11/25/1/218 D.12/29/0/122 G.1 D.1)
(07-Tech -13' 41-24 06-TECH -25 49-21 05-Tech -20' 35-10...SR: Georgia Tech 44-30-1)
COLORADO STATE 31 - Unlv 26—Will it be deja’ vu for UNLV? Sequence
of events eerily similar to Mike Sanford’s previous three seasons in charge,
when Rebs enjoyed similar quick breaks from gate before things went spinning
out of control after bitter loss to hated rival Nevada...which just whipped UNLV
again last week, exposing leaks fore and aft on Rebel stop unit. MWC scouts
report CSU better than advertised, so doubt Rams done in again by fluky nature of
last week’s loss at Cal (Bears scored 3 TDs via defense and STs!).
(07-Colo. St. 48-UNLV 23...U.26-21 C.49/279 U.38/222 U.25/39/3/337 C.13/19/0/218 C.1 U.2)
(07-Csu +2' 48-23 06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27...SR: Colorado State 11-4-1)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 25 - Ohio 24—Prefer underdog Ohio U. and
emerging QB Boo Jackson, who has thrown for 880 yards and 6 TDs in last 3
games. Bobcats are 16-5-1 vs. the number last 22 on the line, and experienced
Ohio HC Frank Solich will certainly try to use Temple’s defensive gameplan as
a blueprint to slow prolific Bronco QB Hiller (held to 1 TDP for 1st time this
season) & RB West (just 35 YR vs. Owls).
(06-OHIO +4 27-20...SR: Western Michigan 29-28-1)
Stanford 27 - NOTRE DAME 24—Although Stanford would gladly welcome
availability of slamming RB Gerhart (left last week’s game at U-Dub with
concussion), relief performance of sr. caddy Kimble (career-best 157 YR vs.
Huskies) indicates Jim Harbaugh indeed has some rabbits to pull out of his hat.
And though ND QB Clausen off career game (275 YP) vs. Purdue, he’s been
more apt to self-destruct than Stanford counterpart Pritchard, whose vet OL
now providing pristine protection. TV—NBC
(07-N. Dame 21-STAN. 14...N.19-18 S.44/175 N.38/117 N.19/32/1/196 S.15/33/2/152 N.3 S.0)
(07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31...SR: Notre Dame 16-6)
TULANE 30 - Army 14—Green Wave has permitted just 69 ypg rushing in
first 4 games, and hungry Tulane should ride its defensive edge to 3rd straight
victory. However, winless Army might hang around now that Black Knights
found competent triggerman (soph QB Bowden had 128 YR last week) for backto-
the-future switch to triple-option attack.
(07-ARMY 20-Tulane 17 (OT)...T.17-14 T.45/247 A.37/47 A.21/29/0/193 T.16/25/0/154 A.0 T.1)
(07-ARMY -6 20-17 (OT) 06-TULANE -5 42-28...SR: Tulane 8-6-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 22 - Temple 10—Temple has scored just a pair of field goals
since QB DiMichele was injured early vs. Penn State. Backup RS frosh QB
Chester Stewart is just 27 of 51 passing with 3 ints. & 0 TDPs and hasn’t been able
to throw deep accurately. Miami-O. jr. QB Raudabaugh gives RedHawks a
significant edge and can put pressure on game but overworked Owl defenders.
(07-TEMPLE 24-Miami 17...M.22-11 T.34/110 M.27/56 M.33/59/2/314 T.14/19/0/188 T.2 M.1)
(07-TEMPLE +6 24-17 05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Illinois 21 - MICHIGAN 19—Second-half comeback against Wisconsin
could be just the tonic Michigan needs. However, Wolverines still showed a
propensity for turnovers (5 more last week), and RS frosh QB Threet isn’t a
good fit for Rich Rodriguez’ offense. Illini QB Juice Williams has improved as
a passer, sporting the best completion percentage & TD-int. ratio of his career.
RB Dufresne has run for 6.7 ypc, and WR Benn scored 2 TDs at Penn State.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 27-ILL. 17...M.23-15 I.31/137 M.46/115 M.21/33/2/228 I.14/26/1/116 M.1 I.1)
(07-Michigan -1' 27-17...SR: Michigan 66-21-
*Missouri 31 - NEBRASKA 17—Strange situation, with Mizzou favored in
the Land of Corn, where the Tigers haven’t won since 1978, going 0-15! MU
coach Pinkel is quite aware of that fact, however, and has been focused on this
matchup since the end of last season. NU’s 35-point allowance last week vs.
Virginia Tech’s young skill group is an indication that the Cornhusker defense still
has plenty of holes for Mizzou’s Daniel, Maclin & Co. to exploit. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-MO. 41-Neb. 6...M.32-20 M.36/195 N.25/74 M.34/49/0/411 N.25/43/1/223 M.0 N.0)
(07-MISSOURI -6 41-6 06-NEB. -6 34-20 05-MISSOURI -1 41-24...SR: Nebraska 63-35-3)
*Texas 30 - COLORADO 23—Colt McCoy (80%, 14 TDs, 1 int.) can hardly
play much better. But questions remain about the youthful Texas secondary.
With 5-6, 175 true frosh mighty mite Rodney Stewart (107 YR last week vs. the
quick Florida State defense) balancing the offense, CU QB Cody Hawkins has
just enough weapons to hang around Longhorn team that’s just 2-6 as a road
favorite since Vince Young left. TV-ABC
(05-TEXAS -17 42-17; TEXAS -26' 70-3-Big XII championship at Houston, TX...SR: Texas 8-6)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 23 - Florida State 17—It wasn’t too long ago that annual
meetings between these heated rivals carried major national implications. Both
teams very young TY, showing only glimpses of resurgence after decided
decline of recent seasons. Sloppy Seminoles (12 penalties in each of last 2
games!) have better WRs and slight defensive edge. Young Miami QBs RS
frosh Marve & tr. frosh Harris appear further along learning curve than FSU
soph counterparts Ponder & Richardson, however. REG TV-ABC
(07-Miami 37-FLA. ST. 29...F.19-17 F.47/158 M.45/153 F.14/33/2/208 M.11/22/3/173 M.1 F.3)
(07-Miami +5' 37-29 06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7...SR: Florida State 27-25)
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 30—Not everything as rosy as it seemed
for Cal in last week’s romp past Colorado State, as electric soph RB Best KO’d
with dislocated elbow, and shaky effort by QB Riley perhaps re-opening
competition with former starter Longshore (who played well in relief).
Meanwhile, Sun Devils had an extra week after numbing home defeats vs.
UNLV & Georgia, and QB Carpenter and vet receiving corps well-equipped to
trade points in Berkeley. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ARIZ. ST. 31-Cal. 20...A.25-18 A.53/144 C.25/98 C.18/36/2/261 A.17/29/0/219 A.1 C.0)
(07-ASU -3 31-20 06-CAL -8 49-21...SR: Arizona State 14-13)
Florida 42 - ARKANSAS 13—Since new Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino might
be wishing he were still in Atlanta following lopsided losses vs. Alabama & rival
Texas (outscored 66-10 by intermission), must “lay it” with Florida, seething
from come-from-ahead 31-30 loss vs. Ole Miss. Gator QB Tebow (61%, 6 TDP,
no ints.), who personally apologized for the Rebel defeat, bounces back vs.
frosh-laden, sieve-like Hog defense (SEC-worst 38 ppg & 191 ypg rushing).
Urban Meyer 3-0 vs. spread following SU loss LY.
(06-Florida -2' 38-28 at Atlanta, Ga...SR: Florida 6-1)
UCF 31 - Smu 24—Can’t back bumbling Knights (10 giveaways, only 3 TDs
last 2 games) even though they’ve covered 6 of 8 as host since moving into new
on-campus stadium LY. SMU taking more lumps than expected under
respected new HC June Jones, but Mustangs’ true frosh QB Mitchell (3 TDP
last week) isn’t getting worse.
(07-Ucf 49-SMU 20...S.25-19 U.39/262 S.54/228 U.14/24/1/222 S.18/38/3/176 U.1 S.1)
(07-Ucf -11' 49-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
BOWLING GREEN 42 - Eastern Michigan 22—BG is just 2-8 last 10 laying
double digits, but that’s about all overwhelmed EMU has going for it. Eagles
have allowed 43 ppg and 234 ypg rushing in compiling 0-4 spread mark this
season, and QB Kyle McMahon (65% in two games after taking over starting
job) left the NIU game with a shoulder injury.
(07-B. Green 39-E. MICH. 32...27-27 E.52/269 B.39/193 B.21/33/1/226 E.12/18/0/134 B.1 E.0)
(07-Bgu -3' 39-32 06-BGU -10' 24-21...SR: Bowling Green 23-10-1)
Navy 27 - AIR FORCE 26—Painful 5-game losing streak vs. Annapolis rival
grates Air Force more than Bill O’Reilly does to Keith Olbermann. But even if
Navy QB Kaipo in civilian wear after reinjuring hamstring at Wake, Mids
confident they can compete on even terms after backup Bryant was at tiller for
last 2½ quarters of upset over Deacs. Falcon option certainly no mystery to
Navy, and new AFA QB Shea Smith yet to display ability to sneak a pass or two
downfield, as did predecessor Carney.
(07-NAVY 31-A. Force 20...A.25-18 N.56/302 A.52/237 A.18/23/0/237 N.4/7/0/79 N.0 A.1)
(07-NAVY -2' 31-20 06-Navy +2' 24-17 05-NAVY -1 27-24...SR: Air Force 25-15)
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 20—With Idaho (1-12 vs. spread last 13 on board!)
plumbing depths of ineptitude unfamiliar to even the longest-suffering Vandal
fans, oddsmakers are going to have to be in a very generous mood before we’d
bite on the Kibbie Dome crew. Especially since Nevada regained its swagger
last week at UNLV, when QB Kaepernick (240 YR & 176 YP vs. Rebs) did a
pretty good Vince Young impersonation. Wolf Pack HC Ault usually takes care
of business as chalk (18-8 in role since ‘04).
(07-NEVADA 37-Idaho 21...N.26-17 N.45/159 I.35/56 N.15/26/0/203 I.12/24/1/156 N.1 I.0)
(07-NEVADA -17' 37-21 06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 16-9)
*TCU 41 - San Diego State 10—After escaping Oklahoma with limbs still
intact, facing SDSU will make TCU feel like it’s on a date with Beyonce’.
Especially since we’ve seen what can happen to Aztec RS frosh QB Lindley
when infantry provides no diversion (as was the case in blowout loss at San
Jose). TCU should similarly shut down SDSU ground traffic and limit Aztecs
thru air. TCU very reliable as home chalk for HC Patterson (11-4 in role since ‘05).
(07-Tcu 45-S. DIEGO ST. 33...T.39-15 T.69/376 S.21/75 S.26/51/0/366 T.26/42/0/318 T.3 S.0)
(07-Tcu -12' 45-33 06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 3-0)
*UCLA 39 - Washington State 15—After respective slow starts, perhaps
new HCs Rick Neuheisel and Paul Wulff could be excused for wishing they
were back at their previous jobs. But there appear to be more silver linings in
UCLA’s clouds than Wazzu’s, especially since vet o.c. Chow seemed to find
defibrillator for moribund Bruin attack in last week’s shootout loss vs. Fresno,
when jerry-rigged OL finally displayed some cohesion, and RB Kahlil Bell
returned to lineup. Positives harder to identify for Cougs, now reduced to their
3rd QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) and allowing 65 ppg (!) vs. Pac-10 foes.
(07-WASH. ST. 27-Ucla 7...W.31-14 W.51/274 U.29/100 W.28/47/1/271 U.17/36/0/167 W.0 U.1)
(07-WSU +6 27-7 06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT)...SR: UCLA 35-18-1)
*ARIZONA 45 - Washington 20—Ty Willingham’s chances of survival at UDub
now slightly less than the GOP’s of regaining majorities in the Senate and
House after yet another stinging home loss (vs. old employer Stanford),
especially with do-everything QB Locker likely sidelined by fractured thumb.
Doubt backup Fouch (though brave in relief vs. Cardinal) can help Huskies
compensate for poor-tackling “D” allowing 41 ppg. Meanwhile, Mike Stoops
showing signs of taking no prisoners (UA win margin 39 ppg in its 3 triumphs!)
as he tries to save his own job in Tucson.
(07-Ariz. 48-WASH. 41...W.25-22 W.46/236 A.24/25 A.38/51/1/510 W.17/30/2/336 A.1 W.3)
(07-Arizona +4 48-41 06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14...SR: Washington 17-6-1)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Northern Illinois 14—UT in testy mood following first 1-
3 start since ‘94, as vexed Vols continuing to get unsteady play from
mistake-prone QB Crompton (just 52%, 2 TDs, 4 ints.). Senior-laden NIU (22
on roster) is used to competing in hostile environs (Ann Arbor, Columbus &
Madison L3Ys). Huskies battle-tested sr. QB Nicholson owns enough weapons
(emerging smurf-like 5-7 frosh RB M. Brown hard to tackle) to do some damage
vs. non-dominating UT defense (allowing 42% on 3rd down). NIU has covered
6 straight on board. (FIRST MEETING)
*Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 35—Since UT (4 TOs, outscored 21-0 in 3rd Q)
was clearly unable to recover from exhausting 55-54 OT loss vs. Fresno State
week before in its stunning 35-16 home loss vs. FIU, don’t mind taking extra
value with Rockets, who’re 6-1 as a Rubber Bowl underdog since ‘03. UT’s
capable QB Opelt (20 starts) & his sure-handed, rangy WRs, 6-5 S. Williams &
6-4 N. Moore, able to trade most of way with BSU’s prolific triggerman N. Davis.
(07-BALL ST. 41-Toledo 20...T.26-20 T.39/214 B.41/181 B.14/20/0/265 T.20/34/2/203 B.0 T.0)
(07-BSU -6' 41-20 06-Bsu +4' 20-17 05-Toledo -20 34-14...SR: EVEN 16-16-1)
Akron 31 - KENT STATE 20—Not difficult to go against Kent State, which
has dropped 11 in a row against the points, has given up 44 ppg in last 3 on the
line, and ranks 105th on defense & 112th in turnover margin. Add in fact that
star Flash RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two contests with an ankle
injury and is very iffy for this game, and you have enough evidence to back
Akron. Zips are on a 6-1-1 spread run, and QB Jacquemain has thrown for more
than 200 yards in each game this season.
(07-AKRON 27-Kent St. 20...A.16-15 K.49/220 A.50/133 K.8/21/2/155 A.9/23/1/112 A.1 K.2)
(07-AKRON +2' 27-20 06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3...SR: Akron 28-20-2)
*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Utep 35—Miners dug themselves out of the dumps
last week, ending 9-game losing streak with resounding 58-13 home win over
UCF. Meanwhile HC Fedora’s USM attack a work in progress under direction
of RS frosh QB Austin Davis. Confident soph Vittatoe (30 TDP, only 11 ints. last
1+ seasons) well established under center for revived UTEP, and attacking
Miner defense has scored 4 TDs in last 2 games.
(07-S. Miss 56-UTEP. 30...S.29-21 S.62/363 U.30/124 U.19/42/1/290 S.10/22/1/205 S.1 U.1)
(07-Southern Miss -3 56-30...SR: Southern Miss 2-1)
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 13—OU is No. 1 in the country for the first time
since just prior to its Big XII title game loss to K-State in 2003, with Sam
Bradford (72%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.) igniting the Sooners’ no-huddle, big-play
offense to near perfection. HC Art Briles has clearly rejuvenated the Baylor
program. But it’s asking a lot of speedy true frosh QB Robert Griffin to trade
points with Bradford. Note, however, OU only 2-5 vs. the spread on the road in
2007; has Texas next.
(07-OKLA. 52-Bay. 21...O.24-20 O.37/180 B.26/170 O.20/25/1/353 B.25/42/2/280 O.0 B.0)
(07-OKLA. -38' 52-21 06-Okla. -20' 36-10 05-OKLA. -14' 37-30 (OT)...SR: Oklahoma 17-0)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 51 - Texas A&M 23—Oklahoma State has lost four
straight in series to A&M, the last three in memorable, agonizing fashion
(Cowboys blew 18-point lead LY!). So, with the Aggie defense somewhat
lacking in speed, and with the OSU offense (51 ppg TY) cooking on all cylinders
(612 yards vs. athletic Troy last week) while A&M is testing its new offense onBig XII road for the first time, will look for some Cowboy revenge.
(07-TX. A&M 24-Osu 23...O.23-19 O.41/200 T.43/150 O.17/27/0/259 T.12/21/0/218 T.0 O.1)
(07-TAM -6' 24-23 06-Tam +3 34-33 (OT) 05-TAM -20 62-23...SR: Texas A&M 17-6)
*WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 21—Wisconsin’s uncharacteristic generosity
at Michigan (4 TOs, including int.-return TD) unlikely to repeat itself now that
Badgers are back at Camp Randall Stadium. Return of Beanie Wells was a plus
for OSU (106 YR), but offense still adjusting to frosh QB Pryor, and the stats he
compiled at home against Minnesota won’t be as easy to come by facing stout
Badger stop unit smarting from setback at Ann Arbor. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-OSU 38-Wis. 17...O.21-15 O.36/211 W.37/12 W.18/30/0/269 O.17/28/0/166 O.0 W.2)
(07-OHIO STATE -16 38-17...SR: Ohio State 51-17-5)
*TULSA 59 - Rice 49—Torrid Tulsa, which has scored at least 45 points in 9
of its last 10 games, hasn’t missed a beat with sr. QB David Johnson (74%,
nation-leading 19 TDP, only 4 ints.) directing o.c. Malzahn’s creative attack. But
vulnerable Hurricane defense unlikely to keep irrepressible Rice sr. QB Clement
(64 TDP & 17 TDR last 2+ seasons!) from trading scores.
(07-Tulsa 48-RICE 43...R.38-28 R.37/159 T.37/151 R.40/67/1/541 T.22/39/1/441 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulsa -13 48-43 06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21...SR: Rice 7-5-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 34 - Oregon 23—We’ll take Pete Carroll at his word and
assume there’s no chance SC will come out as flat as it did in last week’s
stunning loss at Corvallis. But we’ll also take Carroll at his word that some of
Troy’s fundamentals not where they should be (especially after his “D” proved
vulnerable to Beavers’ run game). Oregon spread scoring plenty of points with
whomever is at QB (capable juco Masoli back in lineup last week at Wazzu). And
remember Mike Bellotti has fared better than most vs. Carroll (beating him twice).
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ORE. 24-S. Cal 17...O.22-18 O.47/182 S.33/101 S.26/42/2/277 O.16/25/0/157 O.2 S.1)
(07-OREGON -3 24-17 06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-16-2)
*NEW MEXICO 27 - Wyoming 10—UNM hardly the archetype of a reliable big
favorite (Lobos only 1-3 as DD chalk since ‘05), especially with catalyst QB Porterie
out and RS frosh reliever Gruner spending most of his time handing off to RBs
Ferguson & Baker. But that’s more than can be said of confused Wyo (0-12-1 last
13 on board!), whose QB merry-go-round (4 took snaps last week vs. BG!) now has
Joe Glenn looking like the first HC who could be canned before season concludes.
(07-N. Mex. 20-WYO. 3...N.15-12 N.46/153 W.30/48 N.12/21/0/191 W.21/35/0/190 N.0 W.1)
(07-Unm +3' 20-3 06-Wyo. -1' 14-10 05-Unm +6' 27-24...SR: Wyoming 32-28)
*FRESNO STATE 38 - Hawaii 10—Since UH offense (skunked in 2nd H of
SJS loss week ago!) light years away from LY’s explosive, Colt Brennan-led
attack, must support class-dropping FSU side still fuming over 68-37 blowout on
this field in ‘06. Bulldogs productive QB Brandstater & his well-balanced attack will
have its way vs. overworked Warrior “D” that’s allowed 101 pts. in 1st two road tilts.
(07-HAW 37-Fres. St. 30...25-25 F.44/182 H.24/137 H.29/40/1/410 F.15/26/0/209 H.1 F.1)
(07-HAWAII -19 37-30 06-Hawaii -4 68-37 05-Fsu -12' 27-13...SR: Fresno St. 20-19-1)
ADDED GAMES
VIRGINIA TECH 35 - Western Kentucky 10—Tech off tough 3-game stretch
(wins by 3, 3, and 5 points), and Hokie HC Beamer playing it very close to the
vest on offense. Can outclassed WKU (just 26 points total in last 4 visits to BCS
teams) score enough to stay respectable? (FIRST MEETING)
*LA. MONROE 30 - La.-Lafayette 24—There’s no such thing as home-field
edge in this bayou version of Hatfields vs. the McCoys (road team has won last
5 meetings!). But scheduling dynamics might be disadvantage for ULL, which
emptied chamber in last week’s upset attempt at Kansas State, while Monroe
recuperated with needed bye. Ragin’ Cajun QB Desormeaux no mystery to
Warhawks, whose slick QB Lancaster more likely to make deciding plays thru air.
(07-Mon. 17-LAF. 11...Ll.21-18 Lm.52/196 Ll.37/180 Ll.19/38/1/240 Lm.11/19/0/99 Lm.0 Ll.1)
(07-Ulm -3' 17-11 06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21...SR: La.-Monroe 22-20)
*Florida Intl. 31 - NORTH TEXAS 30—Talk about contrasting performances.
FIU off 35-16 upset win at Toledo, and UNT recouping from mortifying 77-20
debacle at Rice. But still might slightly lean to Mean Green, which owns QB
edge with soph QB Vizza, who hadn’t thrown a pick until last week. Dog has
covered 3 straight between these two Sun Belt bottom-feeders.
(07-FL. INTL. 38-N. Tex. 19...N.16-15 F.40/116 N.26/92 N.31/54/2/253 F.11/20/1/228 F.0 N.1)
(07-FIU +2' 38-19 06-NTU +1' 25-22 (OT) 05-Ntu +1' 13-10...SR: North Texas 2-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
Troy at Florida Atlantic—Check on Tuesday!!
(07-Fla. Atl. 38-TROY 32...T.27-23 T.39/175 F.37/141 F.23/34/0/291 T.36/50/1/271 F.0 T.2)
(07-Fla. Atl +15' 38-32 06-Troy -3' 24-17 05-TROY +3' 28-14...SR: Troy 4-1)
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
*SOUTH FLORIDA 26 - Pittsburgh 17—Bulls a solid investment at Tampa
recently, covering 8 of their last 11 as host. And resourceful USF jr. QB Grothe
rates MAJOR edge over limited Pitt counterpart Stull (only 2 TDP TY). Veteran
Panther stoppers no pushovers, however, holding 9 of last 10 foes to fewer than 28
points. Visitor should hang inside roomy spread behind rushing of star soph RB
McCoy. TV-ESPN
(07-S. Fla. 48-PITT 37...P.20-18 S.44/193 P.34/95 P.24/38/3/298 S.17/23/0/159 S.2 P.0)
(07-Usf -10 48-37 06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17...SR: South Florida 3-2)
*Memphis 34 - UAB 24—Blazers’ versatile jr. QB Webb possesses a few
weapons, especially with speedy soph WR/return man Forrest expected back
after sitting out last week. Too bad UAB defense (466 ypg) can’t hold up its end.
Tigers’ deep cast of rangy WRs and emerging juco RB Steele (203 YR in win
over Ark. St.) will eventually overwhelm hapless host (only 4 covers last 15 at
mostly-empty Legion Field).
(07-MEMPHIS 25-Uab 9...M.25-23 M.43/265 U.30/105 M.14/28/0/298 U.25/39/2/233 M.0 U.0)
(07-MEMPHIS -11 25-9 06-UAB -5' 35-29 05-Uab +2' 37-20...SR: UAB 7-3)
*UTAH 31 - Oregon State 16—Dr. Phil is probably jumping up and down at
the dynamics associated with this “psychology play” deluxe, as OSU off
emotional mega-upset of top-ranked SC, while Utah chomping at the bit in
revenge mode after LY’s opening-game loss at Corvallis when QB B. Johnson
& RB Asiata were both KO’d. Stout Ute rush “D” well-equipped to slow betweenthe-
tackles runs by frosh RB “Quizz” Rodgers that befuddled Trojans, and
more-refined components on Utah attack capable of extending margin.
(07-ORE. ST. 24-Utah 7...O.18-12 O.44/241 U.30/18 U.17/37/0/178 O.12/30/2/129 O.0 U.0)
(07-OREGON STATE -6' 24-7...SR: Oregon State 9-4-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
*MARSHALL 20 - Cincinnati 16—Bearcats down to their 3rd-string QB (see
Special Ticker). Clever Cincy mentor Kelly, who’s covered 66% of his games
as a head coach since ‘05, still owns superior defensive depth & speed in thismatchup. Can maturing Marshall RS frosh QB Cann find enough openings in
Bearcats’ leaky pass coverage to lead Herd to its sixth straight victory at
Huntington? TV—ESPN
(07-CINCY 40-Mar. 14...C.22-19 C.39/217 M.35/80 M.21/32/1/257 C.20/27/0/219 C.0 M.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -24 40-14...SR: Cincinnati 7-3-1)
*Byu 48 - UTAH STATE 13—WAC sources insist USU not as helpless as
recent editions, especially with unheralded QB Borel adding some spark to new
option looks in Aggie attack. But high-flying BYU in no mood to cut any slack
to lower-profile state rival, and BCS-dreamin’ Cougs might want to match the
damage done by mortal enemy Utah, which won big at Logan (58-10) a few
weeks ago.
(06-BYU -27 38-0...SR: BYU 41-33-3)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Boston College 20 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—With veteran HC O’Brien
saying he’s never seen a situation similar to the extensive list of injuries
currently plaguing his Wolfpack, any investment in N.C. State a dicey
proposition. Just not that eager to lay substantial points on road with BC side
struggling to find an offensive identity with new sr. QB Crane (5 ints., just 2 TDP)
at trigger of attack.
(07-BOS. COL. 37-Ncs 17...N.21-19 B.39/231 N.24/56 N.29/54/5/351 B.15/34/1/142 B.0 N.2)
(07-BC -13' 37-17 06-NCS +6' 17-15 05-BC -4' 30-10...SR: Boston College 3-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 28 - Rutgers 20—Check status of Mountaineer star QB Pat
White (thumb injury, but expected to be available at TGS press time Sunday
night). Even if White good to go, prefer to take points with Rutgers. Substantial
edge owned by Scarlet Knights’ WRs, and emergence of thumping RS frosh RB
Brooks (5 TDs & 199 YR in last 2 games) giving strong-armed sr. QB Teel more
time to find targets.
(07-W. Va. 31-RUT. 3...R.20-15 W.47/254 R.40/183 W.10/16/0/144 R.15/31/2/131 W.0 R.2)
(07-Wva -6' 31-3 06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14...SR: West Virginia 29-4-2)
Penn State 37 - PURDUE 21—Definite defensive edges to undefeated Penn
State despite Nittany Lions’ slippage last week in yielding 24 points & 4.5 ypc
at home vs. Illinois, even with return of suspended DE Evans & DT Kuroma.
However, Purdue has far more defensive questions, as the Boilermakers rank
107th in total defense. Purdue QB Painter will move the ball, especially if PS S
Scirrotto can’t go, but Penn State has too many weapons to ask Boilers to trade
TDs for more than a half. TV—ESPN
(07-PSU 26-Pur 19...Pn.29-22 Pn.41/251 Pr.23/68 Pr.27/48/0/255 Pn.22/36/0/210 Pn.1 Pr.1)
(07-PSU -7' 26-19 06-Psu -3 12-0 05-PSU -15 33-15...SR: Penn State 8-3-1)
MINNESOTA 37 - Indiana 24—Minny got a backdoor cover at Ohio State,
scoring twice after trailing 34-6 with less than 9 minutes to play. However,
Gophers improved enough to bounce back against Indiana defense that’s
yielded 84 points & 960 yds. in last 2 games and has yet to cover TY. Will lay
reasonable number against Hoosier side making first road trip of the season (IU
0-4 SU & vs. number last 4 on the road LY).
(07-IND. 40-Minn. 20...I.22-20 I.42/228 M.29/112 M.24/44/2/280 I.24/36/1/235 I.0 M.0)
(07-IND. -13 40-20 06-MINN. -6 63-26 05-Minn. -12' 42-21...SR: Minnesota 36-26-3)
*Maryland 33 - VIRGINIA 13—Despite Terrapins’ recent surge, very
uncomfortable laying big points on road with Maryland squad that tends to play
to level of competition. Absolutely no interest in Virginia side, however, as Cavs
(just 9 ppg first 4) plumbing depths offensively while showing little spine on
defense. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. 18-MARY. 17...V.25-16 V.39/191 M.38/130 V.23/36/0/248 M.13/19/0/103 V.0 M.0)
(07-Va. +4 18-17 06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33...SR: Maryland 41-29-2)
MISSISSIPPI 20 - South Carolina 19—Sure, Houston Nutt got a signature
win at Ole Miss (1st victory over Top 5 squad since 1977!) faster than expected
with stunning 31-30 upset at Florida. But still interested in grabbing higher price
with defensively-stout USC (just 13 ppg, SEC-best 221 ypg), 7-2-1 as away
underdog under the Spurrier. ‘Cocks prized, good-scrambling RS frosh Garcia
(accounted for 217 yds. vs. UAB) & emerging corps of WRs able to burn Ole
Miss’ inviting red zone defense (15 scores in 16 chances; last in SEC). Rebels’
QB Snead has 8 TDP, 8 ints. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 8-5)
Texas Tech 31 - KANSAS STATE 30—TT program still ahead of K-State’s,
but Wildcats’ jumbo QB Josh Freeman (11 TDs, 2 ints.) giving all the signs he’s
ready to trade points with the Red Raiders. Sr. WR Deon Murphy, 5-7 juco
smurf Brandon Banks, and 6-6 TE Jeron Mastrud provide ample targets for
Freeman to duel TT QB Graham Harrell, while HC Prince’s STs always a threat.
REG TV—ABC (05-TX TECH -14' 59-20...SR: Tx Tech 6-3)
Kansas 34 - IOWA STATE 14—With KU supremely rested (played Sam
Houston State followed by bye week) for its Big XII opener, will side with
accurate QB Reesing (70.4%, 11 TDs, only 2 ints.) and veteran Jayhawk
defense over promising but still developing ISU QB Austen (65%, 4 TDs, 2 ints.).
Must be midful, however, of ISU’s 4-1 mark last 5 as home dog.
(07-KANSAS 45-Iowa St. 7...K.31-16 K.37/212 I.26/52 K.30/35/0/354 I.24/43/1/182 K.0 I.0)
(07-KANSAS -26 45-7 06-Kansas -1 41-10 05-KANSAS +3 24-21 (OT)...SR: Kansas 47-34-6)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Duke 23—Go-with vs. go-with? Tech certainly
qualifies now that pointspread dynamo Paul Johnson (3-0 against line TY; 40-
23-1 his last 5+ seasons at Navy) has taken helm in Atlanta. But insiders insist
downtrodden Duke’s early-season uptick no fluke, and can-do new HC
Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils brimming with confidence after snapping 25-game ACC
losing streak last week. Poised QB Lewis (28 TDP last 1+ seasons) will keep
visitor close. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Ga. Tech 41-DUKE 24...G.21-9 G.52/259 D.28/24 G.11/25/1/218 D.12/29/0/122 G.1 D.1)
(07-Tech -13' 41-24 06-TECH -25 49-21 05-Tech -20' 35-10...SR: Georgia Tech 44-30-1)
COLORADO STATE 31 - Unlv 26—Will it be deja’ vu for UNLV? Sequence
of events eerily similar to Mike Sanford’s previous three seasons in charge,
when Rebs enjoyed similar quick breaks from gate before things went spinning
out of control after bitter loss to hated rival Nevada...which just whipped UNLV
again last week, exposing leaks fore and aft on Rebel stop unit. MWC scouts
report CSU better than advertised, so doubt Rams done in again by fluky nature of
last week’s loss at Cal (Bears scored 3 TDs via defense and STs!).
(07-Colo. St. 48-UNLV 23...U.26-21 C.49/279 U.38/222 U.25/39/3/337 C.13/19/0/218 C.1 U.2)
(07-Csu +2' 48-23 06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27...SR: Colorado State 11-4-1)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 25 - Ohio 24—Prefer underdog Ohio U. and
emerging QB Boo Jackson, who has thrown for 880 yards and 6 TDs in last 3
games. Bobcats are 16-5-1 vs. the number last 22 on the line, and experienced
Ohio HC Frank Solich will certainly try to use Temple’s defensive gameplan as
a blueprint to slow prolific Bronco QB Hiller (held to 1 TDP for 1st time this
season) & RB West (just 35 YR vs. Owls).
(06-OHIO +4 27-20...SR: Western Michigan 29-28-1)
Stanford 27 - NOTRE DAME 24—Although Stanford would gladly welcome
availability of slamming RB Gerhart (left last week’s game at U-Dub with
concussion), relief performance of sr. caddy Kimble (career-best 157 YR vs.
Huskies) indicates Jim Harbaugh indeed has some rabbits to pull out of his hat.
And though ND QB Clausen off career game (275 YP) vs. Purdue, he’s been
more apt to self-destruct than Stanford counterpart Pritchard, whose vet OL
now providing pristine protection. TV—NBC
(07-N. Dame 21-STAN. 14...N.19-18 S.44/175 N.38/117 N.19/32/1/196 S.15/33/2/152 N.3 S.0)
(07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31...SR: Notre Dame 16-6)
TULANE 30 - Army 14—Green Wave has permitted just 69 ypg rushing in
first 4 games, and hungry Tulane should ride its defensive edge to 3rd straight
victory. However, winless Army might hang around now that Black Knights
found competent triggerman (soph QB Bowden had 128 YR last week) for backto-
the-future switch to triple-option attack.
(07-ARMY 20-Tulane 17 (OT)...T.17-14 T.45/247 A.37/47 A.21/29/0/193 T.16/25/0/154 A.0 T.1)
(07-ARMY -6 20-17 (OT) 06-TULANE -5 42-28...SR: Tulane 8-6-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 22 - Temple 10—Temple has scored just a pair of field goals
since QB DiMichele was injured early vs. Penn State. Backup RS frosh QB
Chester Stewart is just 27 of 51 passing with 3 ints. & 0 TDPs and hasn’t been able
to throw deep accurately. Miami-O. jr. QB Raudabaugh gives RedHawks a
significant edge and can put pressure on game but overworked Owl defenders.
(07-TEMPLE 24-Miami 17...M.22-11 T.34/110 M.27/56 M.33/59/2/314 T.14/19/0/188 T.2 M.1)
(07-TEMPLE +6 24-17 05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Illinois 21 - MICHIGAN 19—Second-half comeback against Wisconsin
could be just the tonic Michigan needs. However, Wolverines still showed a
propensity for turnovers (5 more last week), and RS frosh QB Threet isn’t a
good fit for Rich Rodriguez’ offense. Illini QB Juice Williams has improved as
a passer, sporting the best completion percentage & TD-int. ratio of his career.
RB Dufresne has run for 6.7 ypc, and WR Benn scored 2 TDs at Penn State.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 27-ILL. 17...M.23-15 I.31/137 M.46/115 M.21/33/2/228 I.14/26/1/116 M.1 I.1)
(07-Michigan -1' 27-17...SR: Michigan 66-21-
*Missouri 31 - NEBRASKA 17—Strange situation, with Mizzou favored in
the Land of Corn, where the Tigers haven’t won since 1978, going 0-15! MU
coach Pinkel is quite aware of that fact, however, and has been focused on this
matchup since the end of last season. NU’s 35-point allowance last week vs.
Virginia Tech’s young skill group is an indication that the Cornhusker defense still
has plenty of holes for Mizzou’s Daniel, Maclin & Co. to exploit. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-MO. 41-Neb. 6...M.32-20 M.36/195 N.25/74 M.34/49/0/411 N.25/43/1/223 M.0 N.0)
(07-MISSOURI -6 41-6 06-NEB. -6 34-20 05-MISSOURI -1 41-24...SR: Nebraska 63-35-3)
*Texas 30 - COLORADO 23—Colt McCoy (80%, 14 TDs, 1 int.) can hardly
play much better. But questions remain about the youthful Texas secondary.
With 5-6, 175 true frosh mighty mite Rodney Stewart (107 YR last week vs. the
quick Florida State defense) balancing the offense, CU QB Cody Hawkins has
just enough weapons to hang around Longhorn team that’s just 2-6 as a road
favorite since Vince Young left. TV-ABC
(05-TEXAS -17 42-17; TEXAS -26' 70-3-Big XII championship at Houston, TX...SR: Texas 8-6)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 23 - Florida State 17—It wasn’t too long ago that annual
meetings between these heated rivals carried major national implications. Both
teams very young TY, showing only glimpses of resurgence after decided
decline of recent seasons. Sloppy Seminoles (12 penalties in each of last 2
games!) have better WRs and slight defensive edge. Young Miami QBs RS
frosh Marve & tr. frosh Harris appear further along learning curve than FSU
soph counterparts Ponder & Richardson, however. REG TV-ABC
(07-Miami 37-FLA. ST. 29...F.19-17 F.47/158 M.45/153 F.14/33/2/208 M.11/22/3/173 M.1 F.3)
(07-Miami +5' 37-29 06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7...SR: Florida State 27-25)
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 30—Not everything as rosy as it seemed
for Cal in last week’s romp past Colorado State, as electric soph RB Best KO’d
with dislocated elbow, and shaky effort by QB Riley perhaps re-opening
competition with former starter Longshore (who played well in relief).
Meanwhile, Sun Devils had an extra week after numbing home defeats vs.
UNLV & Georgia, and QB Carpenter and vet receiving corps well-equipped to
trade points in Berkeley. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ARIZ. ST. 31-Cal. 20...A.25-18 A.53/144 C.25/98 C.18/36/2/261 A.17/29/0/219 A.1 C.0)
(07-ASU -3 31-20 06-CAL -8 49-21...SR: Arizona State 14-13)
Florida 42 - ARKANSAS 13—Since new Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino might
be wishing he were still in Atlanta following lopsided losses vs. Alabama & rival
Texas (outscored 66-10 by intermission), must “lay it” with Florida, seething
from come-from-ahead 31-30 loss vs. Ole Miss. Gator QB Tebow (61%, 6 TDP,
no ints.), who personally apologized for the Rebel defeat, bounces back vs.
frosh-laden, sieve-like Hog defense (SEC-worst 38 ppg & 191 ypg rushing).
Urban Meyer 3-0 vs. spread following SU loss LY.
(06-Florida -2' 38-28 at Atlanta, Ga...SR: Florida 6-1)
UCF 31 - Smu 24—Can’t back bumbling Knights (10 giveaways, only 3 TDs
last 2 games) even though they’ve covered 6 of 8 as host since moving into new
on-campus stadium LY. SMU taking more lumps than expected under
respected new HC June Jones, but Mustangs’ true frosh QB Mitchell (3 TDP
last week) isn’t getting worse.
(07-Ucf 49-SMU 20...S.25-19 U.39/262 S.54/228 U.14/24/1/222 S.18/38/3/176 U.1 S.1)
(07-Ucf -11' 49-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
BOWLING GREEN 42 - Eastern Michigan 22—BG is just 2-8 last 10 laying
double digits, but that’s about all overwhelmed EMU has going for it. Eagles
have allowed 43 ppg and 234 ypg rushing in compiling 0-4 spread mark this
season, and QB Kyle McMahon (65% in two games after taking over starting
job) left the NIU game with a shoulder injury.
(07-B. Green 39-E. MICH. 32...27-27 E.52/269 B.39/193 B.21/33/1/226 E.12/18/0/134 B.1 E.0)
(07-Bgu -3' 39-32 06-BGU -10' 24-21...SR: Bowling Green 23-10-1)
Navy 27 - AIR FORCE 26—Painful 5-game losing streak vs. Annapolis rival
grates Air Force more than Bill O’Reilly does to Keith Olbermann. But even if
Navy QB Kaipo in civilian wear after reinjuring hamstring at Wake, Mids
confident they can compete on even terms after backup Bryant was at tiller for
last 2½ quarters of upset over Deacs. Falcon option certainly no mystery to
Navy, and new AFA QB Shea Smith yet to display ability to sneak a pass or two
downfield, as did predecessor Carney.
(07-NAVY 31-A. Force 20...A.25-18 N.56/302 A.52/237 A.18/23/0/237 N.4/7/0/79 N.0 A.1)
(07-NAVY -2' 31-20 06-Navy +2' 24-17 05-NAVY -1 27-24...SR: Air Force 25-15)
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 20—With Idaho (1-12 vs. spread last 13 on board!)
plumbing depths of ineptitude unfamiliar to even the longest-suffering Vandal
fans, oddsmakers are going to have to be in a very generous mood before we’d
bite on the Kibbie Dome crew. Especially since Nevada regained its swagger
last week at UNLV, when QB Kaepernick (240 YR & 176 YP vs. Rebs) did a
pretty good Vince Young impersonation. Wolf Pack HC Ault usually takes care
of business as chalk (18-8 in role since ‘04).
(07-NEVADA 37-Idaho 21...N.26-17 N.45/159 I.35/56 N.15/26/0/203 I.12/24/1/156 N.1 I.0)
(07-NEVADA -17' 37-21 06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 16-9)
*TCU 41 - San Diego State 10—After escaping Oklahoma with limbs still
intact, facing SDSU will make TCU feel like it’s on a date with Beyonce’.
Especially since we’ve seen what can happen to Aztec RS frosh QB Lindley
when infantry provides no diversion (as was the case in blowout loss at San
Jose). TCU should similarly shut down SDSU ground traffic and limit Aztecs
thru air. TCU very reliable as home chalk for HC Patterson (11-4 in role since ‘05).
(07-Tcu 45-S. DIEGO ST. 33...T.39-15 T.69/376 S.21/75 S.26/51/0/366 T.26/42/0/318 T.3 S.0)
(07-Tcu -12' 45-33 06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 3-0)
*UCLA 39 - Washington State 15—After respective slow starts, perhaps
new HCs Rick Neuheisel and Paul Wulff could be excused for wishing they
were back at their previous jobs. But there appear to be more silver linings in
UCLA’s clouds than Wazzu’s, especially since vet o.c. Chow seemed to find
defibrillator for moribund Bruin attack in last week’s shootout loss vs. Fresno,
when jerry-rigged OL finally displayed some cohesion, and RB Kahlil Bell
returned to lineup. Positives harder to identify for Cougs, now reduced to their
3rd QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) and allowing 65 ppg (!) vs. Pac-10 foes.
(07-WASH. ST. 27-Ucla 7...W.31-14 W.51/274 U.29/100 W.28/47/1/271 U.17/36/0/167 W.0 U.1)
(07-WSU +6 27-7 06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT)...SR: UCLA 35-18-1)
*ARIZONA 45 - Washington 20—Ty Willingham’s chances of survival at UDub
now slightly less than the GOP’s of regaining majorities in the Senate and
House after yet another stinging home loss (vs. old employer Stanford),
especially with do-everything QB Locker likely sidelined by fractured thumb.
Doubt backup Fouch (though brave in relief vs. Cardinal) can help Huskies
compensate for poor-tackling “D” allowing 41 ppg. Meanwhile, Mike Stoops
showing signs of taking no prisoners (UA win margin 39 ppg in its 3 triumphs!)
as he tries to save his own job in Tucson.
(07-Ariz. 48-WASH. 41...W.25-22 W.46/236 A.24/25 A.38/51/1/510 W.17/30/2/336 A.1 W.3)
(07-Arizona +4 48-41 06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14...SR: Washington 17-6-1)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Northern Illinois 14—UT in testy mood following first 1-
3 start since ‘94, as vexed Vols continuing to get unsteady play from
mistake-prone QB Crompton (just 52%, 2 TDs, 4 ints.). Senior-laden NIU (22
on roster) is used to competing in hostile environs (Ann Arbor, Columbus &
Madison L3Ys). Huskies battle-tested sr. QB Nicholson owns enough weapons
(emerging smurf-like 5-7 frosh RB M. Brown hard to tackle) to do some damage
vs. non-dominating UT defense (allowing 42% on 3rd down). NIU has covered
6 straight on board. (FIRST MEETING)
*Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 35—Since UT (4 TOs, outscored 21-0 in 3rd Q)
was clearly unable to recover from exhausting 55-54 OT loss vs. Fresno State
week before in its stunning 35-16 home loss vs. FIU, don’t mind taking extra
value with Rockets, who’re 6-1 as a Rubber Bowl underdog since ‘03. UT’s
capable QB Opelt (20 starts) & his sure-handed, rangy WRs, 6-5 S. Williams &
6-4 N. Moore, able to trade most of way with BSU’s prolific triggerman N. Davis.
(07-BALL ST. 41-Toledo 20...T.26-20 T.39/214 B.41/181 B.14/20/0/265 T.20/34/2/203 B.0 T.0)
(07-BSU -6' 41-20 06-Bsu +4' 20-17 05-Toledo -20 34-14...SR: EVEN 16-16-1)
Akron 31 - KENT STATE 20—Not difficult to go against Kent State, which
has dropped 11 in a row against the points, has given up 44 ppg in last 3 on the
line, and ranks 105th on defense & 112th in turnover margin. Add in fact that
star Flash RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two contests with an ankle
injury and is very iffy for this game, and you have enough evidence to back
Akron. Zips are on a 6-1-1 spread run, and QB Jacquemain has thrown for more
than 200 yards in each game this season.
(07-AKRON 27-Kent St. 20...A.16-15 K.49/220 A.50/133 K.8/21/2/155 A.9/23/1/112 A.1 K.2)
(07-AKRON +2' 27-20 06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3...SR: Akron 28-20-2)
*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Utep 35—Miners dug themselves out of the dumps
last week, ending 9-game losing streak with resounding 58-13 home win over
UCF. Meanwhile HC Fedora’s USM attack a work in progress under direction
of RS frosh QB Austin Davis. Confident soph Vittatoe (30 TDP, only 11 ints. last
1+ seasons) well established under center for revived UTEP, and attacking
Miner defense has scored 4 TDs in last 2 games.
(07-S. Miss 56-UTEP. 30...S.29-21 S.62/363 U.30/124 U.19/42/1/290 S.10/22/1/205 S.1 U.1)
(07-Southern Miss -3 56-30...SR: Southern Miss 2-1)
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 13—OU is No. 1 in the country for the first time
since just prior to its Big XII title game loss to K-State in 2003, with Sam
Bradford (72%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.) igniting the Sooners’ no-huddle, big-play
offense to near perfection. HC Art Briles has clearly rejuvenated the Baylor
program. But it’s asking a lot of speedy true frosh QB Robert Griffin to trade
points with Bradford. Note, however, OU only 2-5 vs. the spread on the road in
2007; has Texas next.
(07-OKLA. 52-Bay. 21...O.24-20 O.37/180 B.26/170 O.20/25/1/353 B.25/42/2/280 O.0 B.0)
(07-OKLA. -38' 52-21 06-Okla. -20' 36-10 05-OKLA. -14' 37-30 (OT)...SR: Oklahoma 17-0)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 51 - Texas A&M 23—Oklahoma State has lost four
straight in series to A&M, the last three in memorable, agonizing fashion
(Cowboys blew 18-point lead LY!). So, with the Aggie defense somewhat
lacking in speed, and with the OSU offense (51 ppg TY) cooking on all cylinders
(612 yards vs. athletic Troy last week) while A&M is testing its new offense onBig XII road for the first time, will look for some Cowboy revenge.
(07-TX. A&M 24-Osu 23...O.23-19 O.41/200 T.43/150 O.17/27/0/259 T.12/21/0/218 T.0 O.1)
(07-TAM -6' 24-23 06-Tam +3 34-33 (OT) 05-TAM -20 62-23...SR: Texas A&M 17-6)
*WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 21—Wisconsin’s uncharacteristic generosity
at Michigan (4 TOs, including int.-return TD) unlikely to repeat itself now that
Badgers are back at Camp Randall Stadium. Return of Beanie Wells was a plus
for OSU (106 YR), but offense still adjusting to frosh QB Pryor, and the stats he
compiled at home against Minnesota won’t be as easy to come by facing stout
Badger stop unit smarting from setback at Ann Arbor. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-OSU 38-Wis. 17...O.21-15 O.36/211 W.37/12 W.18/30/0/269 O.17/28/0/166 O.0 W.2)
(07-OHIO STATE -16 38-17...SR: Ohio State 51-17-5)
*TULSA 59 - Rice 49—Torrid Tulsa, which has scored at least 45 points in 9
of its last 10 games, hasn’t missed a beat with sr. QB David Johnson (74%,
nation-leading 19 TDP, only 4 ints.) directing o.c. Malzahn’s creative attack. But
vulnerable Hurricane defense unlikely to keep irrepressible Rice sr. QB Clement
(64 TDP & 17 TDR last 2+ seasons!) from trading scores.
(07-Tulsa 48-RICE 43...R.38-28 R.37/159 T.37/151 R.40/67/1/541 T.22/39/1/441 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulsa -13 48-43 06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21...SR: Rice 7-5-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 34 - Oregon 23—We’ll take Pete Carroll at his word and
assume there’s no chance SC will come out as flat as it did in last week’s
stunning loss at Corvallis. But we’ll also take Carroll at his word that some of
Troy’s fundamentals not where they should be (especially after his “D” proved
vulnerable to Beavers’ run game). Oregon spread scoring plenty of points with
whomever is at QB (capable juco Masoli back in lineup last week at Wazzu). And
remember Mike Bellotti has fared better than most vs. Carroll (beating him twice).
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ORE. 24-S. Cal 17...O.22-18 O.47/182 S.33/101 S.26/42/2/277 O.16/25/0/157 O.2 S.1)
(07-OREGON -3 24-17 06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-16-2)
*NEW MEXICO 27 - Wyoming 10—UNM hardly the archetype of a reliable big
favorite (Lobos only 1-3 as DD chalk since ‘05), especially with catalyst QB Porterie
out and RS frosh reliever Gruner spending most of his time handing off to RBs
Ferguson & Baker. But that’s more than can be said of confused Wyo (0-12-1 last
13 on board!), whose QB merry-go-round (4 took snaps last week vs. BG!) now has
Joe Glenn looking like the first HC who could be canned before season concludes.
(07-N. Mex. 20-WYO. 3...N.15-12 N.46/153 W.30/48 N.12/21/0/191 W.21/35/0/190 N.0 W.1)
(07-Unm +3' 20-3 06-Wyo. -1' 14-10 05-Unm +6' 27-24...SR: Wyoming 32-28)
*FRESNO STATE 38 - Hawaii 10—Since UH offense (skunked in 2nd H of
SJS loss week ago!) light years away from LY’s explosive, Colt Brennan-led
attack, must support class-dropping FSU side still fuming over 68-37 blowout on
this field in ‘06. Bulldogs productive QB Brandstater & his well-balanced attack will
have its way vs. overworked Warrior “D” that’s allowed 101 pts. in 1st two road tilts.
(07-HAW 37-Fres. St. 30...25-25 F.44/182 H.24/137 H.29/40/1/410 F.15/26/0/209 H.1 F.1)
(07-HAWAII -19 37-30 06-Hawaii -4 68-37 05-Fsu -12' 27-13...SR: Fresno St. 20-19-1)
ADDED GAMES
VIRGINIA TECH 35 - Western Kentucky 10—Tech off tough 3-game stretch
(wins by 3, 3, and 5 points), and Hokie HC Beamer playing it very close to the
vest on offense. Can outclassed WKU (just 26 points total in last 4 visits to BCS
teams) score enough to stay respectable? (FIRST MEETING)
*LA. MONROE 30 - La.-Lafayette 24—There’s no such thing as home-field
edge in this bayou version of Hatfields vs. the McCoys (road team has won last
5 meetings!). But scheduling dynamics might be disadvantage for ULL, which
emptied chamber in last week’s upset attempt at Kansas State, while Monroe
recuperated with needed bye. Ragin’ Cajun QB Desormeaux no mystery to
Warhawks, whose slick QB Lancaster more likely to make deciding plays thru air.
(07-Mon. 17-LAF. 11...Ll.21-18 Lm.52/196 Ll.37/180 Ll.19/38/1/240 Lm.11/19/0/99 Lm.0 Ll.1)
(07-Ulm -3' 17-11 06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21...SR: La.-Monroe 22-20)
*Florida Intl. 31 - NORTH TEXAS 30—Talk about contrasting performances.
FIU off 35-16 upset win at Toledo, and UNT recouping from mortifying 77-20
debacle at Rice. But still might slightly lean to Mean Green, which owns QB
edge with soph QB Vizza, who hadn’t thrown a pick until last week. Dog has
covered 3 straight between these two Sun Belt bottom-feeders.
(07-FL. INTL. 38-N. Tex. 19...N.16-15 F.40/116 N.26/92 N.31/54/2/253 F.11/20/1/228 F.0 N.1)
(07-FIU +2' 38-19 06-NTU +1' 25-22 (OT) 05-Ntu +1' 13-10...SR: North Texas 2-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
Troy at Florida Atlantic—Check on Tuesday!!
(07-Fla. Atl. 38-TROY 32...T.27-23 T.39/175 F.37/141 F.23/34/0/291 T.36/50/1/271 F.0 T.2)
(07-Fla. Atl +15' 38-32 06-Troy -3' 24-17 05-TROY +3' 28-14...SR: Troy 4-1)
Last edited by a moderator:
THE GOLD SHEET - NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals” alert—Broncos “over” 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over” 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over” last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat” formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over” lately (Giants “over” 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over” 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals” alert—Broncos “over” 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over” 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over” last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat” formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over” lately (Giants “over” 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over” 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
Red Sheet
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 4, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 6
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus
2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their
epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC
has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off
a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top
passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this
type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now
minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land,
just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson
(5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's
3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense,
are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the
'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we
went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their
offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than
proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post
just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team, which has already faced a
non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now
minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would
indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the
Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding
down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise,
except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had
22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as
the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run!
And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their
last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now
hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs
the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½
pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) --Line opened at NewEngland minus 3½, and is now
minus 3. As we wrote earlier, had these 2 met on opening week, the spread would have
been at least 10 pts higher. The loss of Brady, of course, is monumental. However, the
defense stepped up in the Pats' 2 openers, allowing 10 & 10 pts. But it all collapsed in 3813
shocking loss to Miami, at home. Thus, this contest is a classic "backs-to-the-wall"
situation for the Patriots. No questioning the improvement of the Niners (33 & 31 pt efforts
in 2 of their last 3 outings), thus there will be no sneaking up. Pats have to take it.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA -- NFL: Jacksonville, Giants, Minnesota
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): La-Lafayette (+3 to -2½); Utah (-8 to -12); FresnoSt (-20
to -22½); PennSt (-10½ to -12½); ColoradoSt (Pick to -2); Florida (-22 to -24); SanDiegoSt (26 to +24); BC
(-6½ to -8); WestVirginia (-13 to -14½); MichiganSt (-8 to -9½); Vanderbilt (+6 to +4½); BallSt (-5½ to -7);
Missouri (-9 to -10½); Arizona (-18 to -19½) -NFL: Seattle (+9 to +7); KansasCity (+10½ to +9½) -TIME
CHANGES: Alabama/Kentucky: now 3:30 - KEY INJURIES: Cal RB Best (elbow) out; Cincy QB Pike (arm)
out; UConn QB Lorenzen (foot) out; EMich QB McMahon (shoulder) questionable; GaTech QB Nesbitt (hamstring)
questionable; Iowa RB Greene (head) probable; Illinois RB Dufrene (shoulder) probable; Kent RB
Jarvis (ankle) questionable; Navy QB Enhada (hamstring) questionable); NewMexico RB Ferguson (shoulder)
probable; NoIllinois RB Brown (ankle) questionable; OregonSt WR Stroughter (hip) probable; OklaSt
TE Pettigrew (ankle) questionable; Purdue RB Sheets (shoulder) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder)
out; WashSt QB Lopina (back) out; Washington QB Locker (thumb) out; WVa QB White (thumb) probable;
NFL: Card WR Bolden (head) doubtful; Bengal QB Palmer (elbow) doubtful; Lion QB Kitna (knee)
questionable; Packer QB Rodgers (shoulder) questionable; Vike QB Frerotte (hand) probable; Eagle RB
Westbrook (ankle) questionable; Steeler RB Parker (knee) questionable.
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 4, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 6
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus
2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their
epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC
has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off
a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top
passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this
type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now
minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land,
just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson
(5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's
3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense,
are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the
'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we
went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their
offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than
proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post
just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team, which has already faced a
non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now
minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would
indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the
Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding
down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise,
except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had
22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as
the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run!
And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their
last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now
hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs
the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½
pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) --Line opened at NewEngland minus 3½, and is now
minus 3. As we wrote earlier, had these 2 met on opening week, the spread would have
been at least 10 pts higher. The loss of Brady, of course, is monumental. However, the
defense stepped up in the Pats' 2 openers, allowing 10 & 10 pts. But it all collapsed in 3813
shocking loss to Miami, at home. Thus, this contest is a classic "backs-to-the-wall"
situation for the Patriots. No questioning the improvement of the Niners (33 & 31 pt efforts
in 2 of their last 3 outings), thus there will be no sneaking up. Pats have to take it.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA -- NFL: Jacksonville, Giants, Minnesota
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): La-Lafayette (+3 to -2½); Utah (-8 to -12); FresnoSt (-20
to -22½); PennSt (-10½ to -12½); ColoradoSt (Pick to -2); Florida (-22 to -24); SanDiegoSt (26 to +24); BC
(-6½ to -8); WestVirginia (-13 to -14½); MichiganSt (-8 to -9½); Vanderbilt (+6 to +4½); BallSt (-5½ to -7);
Missouri (-9 to -10½); Arizona (-18 to -19½) -NFL: Seattle (+9 to +7); KansasCity (+10½ to +9½) -TIME
CHANGES: Alabama/Kentucky: now 3:30 - KEY INJURIES: Cal RB Best (elbow) out; Cincy QB Pike (arm)
out; UConn QB Lorenzen (foot) out; EMich QB McMahon (shoulder) questionable; GaTech QB Nesbitt (hamstring)
questionable; Iowa RB Greene (head) probable; Illinois RB Dufrene (shoulder) probable; Kent RB
Jarvis (ankle) questionable; Navy QB Enhada (hamstring) questionable); NewMexico RB Ferguson (shoulder)
probable; NoIllinois RB Brown (ankle) questionable; OregonSt WR Stroughter (hip) probable; OklaSt
TE Pettigrew (ankle) questionable; Purdue RB Sheets (shoulder) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder)
out; WashSt QB Lopina (back) out; Washington QB Locker (thumb) out; WVa QB White (thumb) probable;
NFL: Card WR Bolden (head) doubtful; Bengal QB Palmer (elbow) doubtful; Lion QB Kitna (knee)
questionable; Packer QB Rodgers (shoulder) questionable; Vike QB Frerotte (hand) probable; Eagle RB
Westbrook (ankle) questionable; Steeler RB Parker (knee) questionable.
